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2. Case study: Future Climate Risks and Public Housing in Hong Kong​

2.2 Physical climate risks assessment: methodology and climate scenarios​

Table 2. Key steps and data & models for physical risks assessment.

Main Steps

Data Sources & Models

Physical Risks Identification

  • Gather real estate data in Hong Kong, including property locations and asset types.
  • Obtain historical hazards data for the region, including frequency, intensity, etc.

Physical Risks Analysis

  • General Circulation Models
  • Regional Climate Models
  • Historical Observations
  • Geospatial Data
  • Economic Data

Climate Scenarios Analysis

  • SSP1-RCP2.6
  • SSP2-RCP4.5
  • SSP4-RCP6.0
  • SSP5-RCP8.5

Physical Risks Quantification

  • CLIMADA Model https://wcr.ethz.ch/research/climada.html

Data and Model Integration, Visualization

  • YoujiVest Climate Risk Model

The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) are projected climate change scenarios defined by the IPCC AR6.5 The combined SSP-RCP scenarios, summarized in Table 3, are among the most commonly used global climate scenarios. They combine baseline SSPs with different emissions trajectories (based on the RCPs). We adopt the combined SSP-RCP scenarios to project future climate extremes in the selected sites, taking both emission trajectories and socioeconomic development into account.

Table 3. Different climate scenarios and implied temperature rises.

Time horizon

Near-term

(2030)

Mid-term

(2050)

Long-term

(2080)

Long-term

(2100)

ScenarioTemperature Increasing (°C)

SSP1-2.6

1.47

1.76

1.83

1.76

SSP2-4.5

1.49

1.97

2.46

2.63

SSP4-6.0

1.49

2.05

2.80

3.16

SSP5-8.5

1.60

2.48

4.05

5.05

Data source: The data derives from Our World in Data, https://ourworldindata.org/
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